The geopolitical future of agri-food production is in Africa. Agriculture already contributes 30 percent of Africa’s GDP and employs 55 percent [Ref. 1] of the continent’s workforce. As the current food crisis on the continent demonstrates, Africa’s prosperity depends on expanding the output of its agricultural sector.

by Michael Tanchum

African countries across all regions recognize that their over-reliance on global trade and foreign aid to provide staple food items for their citizens is no longer tenable. Many African governments are engaged in massive infrastructure building programs to increase their domestic agri-food production, particularly cereal grains. The European Union and its member states governments, already beleaguered from Russia’s war in Ukraine and fearing an unmanageable waves of famine-driven migration, have committed billions in financing to support these efforts.

The expansion of agri-food production in Africa is also a long-term geopolitical trend of global consequence. Possessing most of the world’s uncultivated arable land, vast untapped energy sources, and the world’s fastest growing workforce, African agri-food production in the future will not only feed the continent but will becoming an increasingly vital component of global food security. Biostimulants and fertigation using water-soluble fertilizers (WSFs) can be important keys to unlocking Africa’s agri-food production potential. 

Moving from Food Crisis to Self-Sufficiency in Africa: Mapping the Market Opportunities 
The scale of food insecurity in Africa has spurred the continent’s governments and their international partners to prioritize the immediate expansion of local agricultural production. In 2021, 278 million [Ref. 2] Africans, 20.2 percent of the continent’s population, were in a state of food insecurity. Following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine that resulted in cereal grain supply shortages and price spikes, acute food insecurity increased [Ref. 3] by 60 percent in the greater East Africa region and by close to 40 percent in West Africa. Biostimulants and fertigation offer some of the most cost-effective solutions, which can be readily deployed to address the urgent need to increase productivity.

In the longer term, Africa’s abundance of human and material resources also means that a larger proportion of the world’s agri-food production will be shifting to the African continent. Africa boasts the highest fertility rates [Ref. 4] of any region in the world by a wide margin. By 2025, Africa will have over 100 cities with more than one million inhabitants [Ref. 5] – one-third more than the European Union. By 2030, Africa will be home to 42 percent of the world’s young people [Ref. 6], providing the continent with the world’s largest supply of affordable labour and the most robustly growing urban food consumer markets.

Africa possesses 65 percent of the Earth’s uncultivated arable land [Ref. 7] and has the energy for agriculture – from vast reserves of natural gas just being developed to the world’s largest solar energy resources as well as ample wind and other renewable energy resources. With the potential [Ref. 8] to produce $1.06 trillion worth of green hydrogen by 2035, Africa is emerging as a global hub for green ammonia production [Ref. 9] to supply the next generation of low-carbon fertilizers. 

The main issue for Africa is water-use efficiency. Africa’s efforts to expand its agri-food production face interrelated challenges from water scarcity and soil degradation that are being exacerbated by the debilitating effects of climate change. The advantages in water-use efficiency and coping with heat stress provided by biostimulants and water-soluble fertilizers could mean the difference between success and failure across the continent. Africa’s three largest countries Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia provide a useful map to understand the scope of the challenges and the market opportunities. The combined population of Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia exceeds that of the entire European Union and their combined GDP exceeds $1 trillion. Of the three, Egypt faces the starkest water scarcity crisis and best illustrates the demand potential for biostimulants and fertigation.

Egypt 
Boasting 105 million citizens, Egypt is Africa’s third largest nation and the most populous nation in the Mediterranean basin. Yet Egypt’s agrifood production cannot meet even half of its domestic demand for staple foodstuffs, particularly the cereal grains wheat and maize (corn). To fill the shortfall, Cairo is forced to use its foreign reserves to import food while spending $4.14 billion on subsidies [Ref. 10] to make that imported food affordable for the population. With wheat and maize prices surging, the budget-breaking cost of subsidizing basic items from bread to cooking oil has turned Egypt’s food crisis into an existential threat to its economy [Ref. 11]. Ramping up Egypt’s cereal grain production has become a strategic priority for the Egyptian government and the international community. 

Current efforts to increase Egypt’s agrifood output are hampered by the challenge of water-use efficiency amid the country’s worsening water scarcity. Receiving an average annual rainfall of just 33.3 mm [Ref. 12], Egypt depends on the Nile River to provide approximately 90 percent of its freshwater consumption [Ref. 13] of about 65 billion cubic meters (bcm), over 80 percent [Ref. 14] of which is used in the agricultural sector. With more than 99 percent [Ref. 15] of Egyptian agriculture relying on conventional flood irrigation, approximately 50 percent of the water never reaches the root systems of Egypt’s crops. Under conditions of heat stress, crops rely on evapotranspiration for cooling to maintain a viable temperature. The rise in potential evapotranspiration, according to climate change projection models, means a projected increase in water irrigation demand by upwards of 13 percent [Ref. 16]. Egypt already faces an annual water deficit [Ref. 17] of 30-35 bcm, equivalent to about 60 percent of the Nile River’s water contribution to the country. Absent effective countermeasures, the World Bank forecasts [Ref. 18] that climate change-driven water scarcity and heat stress will reduce Egypt’s wheat and maize production between 10 percent and 20 percent. 
To address the problem, Egypt has adopted an infrastructure build-out approach with a $50 billion price tag. Cairo aims to build 21 desalination plants [Ref. 19] to increase its water supply and is seeking foreign investment to help defray the $3 billion cost of just the phase one development. The $8 billion project would contribute 3.21 bcm to Egypt’s water supply, roughly 10 percent of the current deficit, enough just to soften the competing demand pressures for water between agriculture and human consumption. Egypt’s government is also undertaking a $2.6 billion program [Ref. 20] to rehabilitate 20,000 km of the country’s canal system to improve Egypt’s water distribution and irrigation systems. 

These measure by themselves are an insufficient solution as they do not address basic issues of water-use efficiency and resistance to heat stress. While the water requirement to produce a staple vegetable crop in Egypt like potatoes is 287 litres [Ref. 21] per kilogram, the water demand for cereal grain production is at least five times greater, with wheat requiring 1,827 [Ref. 22] litres per kilogram. Cereal grains also compete against cotton, the apparel made from which constitutes Egypt’s third largest net export [Ref. 23]. The water demand for cotton is over five times greater [Ref. 24] than that of cereal grains.

Egypt’s real water savings will come from replacing conventional flood irrigation with drip irrigation and other forms of smart irrigation, which can reduce the agricultural sector’s water consumption by upwards of 60 percent [Ref. 25]. To convert half of Egypt’s irrigated farmland to smart irrigation [Ref. 26], using drip as well as bubble, spray, or mist irrigation, Cairo has undertaken a $3 billion initiative [Ref. 27] that will allow farmers to pay for the conversion in interest-free installments over 10 years. With a cumulative cost of $14.4 billion, desalination and irrigation could reduce Egypt’s current water deficit by 20 percent to 70 percent, but it could take the rest of decade to complete. Biostimulants could start increasing yields much sooner and fertigation with WSFs would improve the yields of smart irrigation networks as they gradually come online.

Ethiopia 
Ethiopia, with 127 million inhabitants, is Africa’s second most populous nation. With food inflation levels [Ref. 28] consistently running over 30 percent, Ethiopia faces a crisis similar to that of Egypt, especially given the central role agriculture plays in the Ethiopian economy, accounting for almost 40 percent [Ref. 29] of Ethiopia’s GDP and 80 percent [Ref. 30] of its exports. Coffee is Ethiopia’s top revenue earner and alone comprises 49.1 percent [Ref. 31] of the country’s exports. The agricultural sector also employs about 75 percent [Ref. 32] of the country’s workforce. As in Egypt, Ethiopia’s agri-food production is challenged by increasing heat stress and water scarcity following six consecutive failed rainy seasons. Currently, 20.1 million Ethiopians [Ref. 33] are in need of emergency food assistance. As in Egypt, Ethiopia has no alternative but to increase the domestic production of cereal grains.

Like Egypt, a fundamental obstacle to Ethiopia boosting its cereal grain output is water-use efficiency amid increasing water scarcity, exacerbated by the extremely high amount of water required to produce Ethiopia’s principal export revenue earner, coffee. Maize is Ethiopia’s most important food staple, whose cultivation covers 90 percent [Ref. 34] of the country’s arable land. While the production of one kilogram of maize requires 1,222 litres [Ref. 35] of water, the production of a kilogram of coffee requires 15,897 litres [Ref. 36] or 13 times the amount of water. Ethiopia is looking to its ambitious irrigation development plans to solve the problem. By 2030, Addis Ababa aims to construct irrigation networks to supply water to 1.2 million hectares [Ref. 37] to reduce Ethiopia’s reliance on rainfed agriculture. In addition to irrigation, Ethiopia’s 10-year plan seeks to increase total crop output by through increasing the distribution of fertilizers from 16.1 million quintals to 32.9 million [Ref. 38]. By these means, Ethiopia hopes to boost food production during the autumn and spring seasons with the goal of increasing total crop output from 543 million quintals to 925 million [Ref. 39]. 

With the aim of achieving self-sufficiency in wheat production, Ethiopia already expanded wheat production by 92 percent [Ref. 40] between 2010 and 2020 resulting in a 33 percent decrease in imports over the same period.  The Ethiopian government has continued to expand production over the past three years [Ref. 41], but is still limited by its reliance on rainfed agriculture. The African Development Bank (AfDB) signed an agreement with Addis Ababa for a $84.3 million project to be implemented over five years to improve productivity along the wheat value chain, including the rehabilitation 23,092 hectares of irrigation [Ref. 42] with some degree of smart irrigation. Ethiopia’s yields increases have also benefitted from the country’s partnership with Morocco’s fertilizer giant OCP, which is building Africa’s second-largest fertilizer production complex [Ref. 43]. The $2.4 billion first development phase will have an annual production capacity [Ref. 44] of 2.5 million tons of urea, NPK, and nitrogen-phosphorus-sulphur (NPS) with the plant eventually reaching 3.8 million tons [Ref. 45]. OCP discovered a sulphur deficiency [Ref. 46] in Ethiopia’s soils and developed 13 specific formulas [Ref. 47] to compensate, resulting in significantly increased yields. 

Nigeria 
Home to 224 million citizens, Nigeria boasts Africa’s largest population and its largest economy. Nigeria also possesses the continent’s largest natural gas reserves and the second largest oil reserves. Despite its hydrocarbon industry, agriculture accounts for 25.6 percent [Ref. 48] of Nigeria’s GDP. With food inflation running at almost 30 percent [Ref. 49], Nigeria’s president declared [Ref. 50] a national state of emergency on food security. A crisis of similar scale to Ethiopia, there are over 24.8 million [Ref. 51] food insecure Nigerians who require humanitarian assistance. The crisis most acute in the cereal grain growing region of northern Nigeria, which increasingly suffers from climate change-driven severe weather events, alternating between worsening drought [Ref. 52] and increased flooding [Ref. 53]. The 2022 floods in the region destroyed $1.5 billion of investments [Ref. 54] in the agricultural sector.

Traditionally among the world’s top 10 wheat importers [Ref. 55], Nigeria has been engaged in implementing its National Strategy for Wheat Self-Sufficiency. In 2022, Nigeria was able to reduce its spending on wheat imports by 17.5 percent [Ref. 56] compared to 2021. According to the government’s timetable, Nigeria aims for wheat self-sufficiency by 2032 through expanding the total area under wheat cultivation from 100,000 hectares to two million hectares with support from the AfDB. The increased irrigation and fertilizer use will be key determinants of whether Nigeria will succeed in its ambitions to expand the production of wheat, as well as the other staple grains of maize and sorghum [Ref. 57]. Nigeria’s area under irrigation comprises only 5.4 percent [Ref. 58] of its irrigable farmland. Nigeria’s federal government aims to create an additional 500,000 hectares [Ref. 59] of irrigated land by 2030 while the private sector and Nigeria’s state governments are slated to bring an additional one million hectares [Ref. 60] under irrigation during the same period. As in Ethiopia, OCP is building a fertilizer manufacturing complex that will have an annual production capacity [Ref. 61] of 750,000 tons of ammonia and one million tons of fertilizer.

The Value Proposition of Biostimulants and Fertigation for African Agriculture 
Compared to the planned infrastructure projects in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, biostimulants can achieve similar results in improved yields at much lower cost through promoting nutrient uptake and improving crop tolerance of heat and drought stress. A 2022 meta-study [Ref. 62] of biostimulant effectiveness found an across-the-board increase in crop yields ranging from 8.5 percent to 30.8 percent. Because of their effectiveness, the European Biostimulants Industry Council projects [Ref. 63] a compound annual growth rate for the European biostimulants market of 10-12 percent. The potential for African markets is enormous, especially if manufacturers orient the field testing of their products around water-use efficiency for cereal grain production in addition to drought resistance.

A cereal grain crop like wheat will lose up to 50 percent of its root system under drought conditions, hampering the crop’s water uptake and recovery once drought conditions cease. Biostimulants can render crops drought resistant by preventing any overall loss to the root system. The same process can also increase water-use efficiency in healthy crops. Several companies across the industry boast biostimulant products that can increase the root systems of healthy crops by at least 30 percent, providing a corresponding benefit in water-use efficiency, reducing the large water loss currently experienced with conventional flood irrigation. At a considerably lower cost, biostimulants can be applied in countries such as Egypt, Ethiopia, and Nigeria as they roll out their programs to convert farmland to smart irrigation – ensuring productivity increases independent of the pace of smart irrigation conversion.

Where smart irrigation has already been deployed, fertigation using WSFs will result in commensurate crop yield increases, as WSFs have yield efficiency at least two times greater than conventional granular fertilizers. The significantly smaller particle size of WSFs increases crop nutrient uptake, especially in the case of phosphorus that is crucial for cereal grain production.

Because localized fertigation can apply a WSF directly to the spot where it will be consumed, efficiencies are enhanced as a grower can modulate the concentrations of nutrients according to the crop requirements at any given time, leading to higher crop yields. WSFs and biostimulations can be used together in fertigation to achieve a synergistic effect to boost yields even further.

First Mover Advantage in Africa’s Agri-Food Future 
As African countries seek to expand agri-food production toward the goal of achieving self-sufficiency, many are also attempting to develop or expand local fertilizer production. Egypt is already the world’s sixth largest producer of urea [Ref. 64] and the seventh largest ammonia producer [Ref. 65]. Both Ethiopia and Nigeria are expanding their own domestic fertilizer production capacity with the help of OCP. While positive steps, Africa will need to leapfrog granular fertilizers and shift to fertigation, as WSFs and biostimulants offer the critical advantages in water-use efficiency and coping with heat stress that provide a cost-effective pathway to increasing Africa’s agri-food productivity – especially for raising cereal grain yields within a timeframe quick enough to stem the current crisis. African governments and their international partners have already committed billions to support the effort. Fortune favours the prepared and those manufacturers who start field trials in Africa will enjoy first mover advantage in developing export markets on the continent as well as local production.

The geopolitical future of agri-food production is in Africa. Smart irrigation with WSFs and biostimulants will be playing vital part in that future, but latecomers to Africa are likely to find an already crowded field. 

Professor Michael Tanchum is CEO of Nexus Foresight and teaches Universidad de Navarra. He is also non-resident fellow in the Economics and Energy Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. and a research fellow at the Centre for African Studies at the School of Business and Finance at the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. You can follow him on Twitter @michaeltanchum. The author would like to thank Vicky Andarcia and Josué Burgos García for their research assistance.

This article first appeared in the November/December 2023 issue of New AG International here, and access digital issue here (free to view).

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